Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.