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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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